2024 Assembly Elections: Surprises, Strategies, and Lessons for Political Parties

(The 2024 Haryana and J&K elections reveal key lessons for political parties on strategy, leadership, and voter outreach.)

The 2024 assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir were events filled with surprises, reversals, and important lessons for political parties, particularly the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Early pre-poll surveys indicated a significant victory for Congress in Haryana. However, the situation changed drastically during the elections, resulting in a surprising victory for the BJP. In Jammu & Kashmir, the results highlighted the enduring strength of the National Conference (NC) and the struggles of both the Congress and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This editorial examines the reasons behind these outcomes and explores the implications for upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

A Review of Haryana Elections

In Haryana, the BJP defied all poll predictions to secure a third consecutive term, winning 48 out of 90 seats. Pre-election surveys had predicted a comfortable victory for the Congress, which seemed poised to capitalise on anti-

incumbency sentiment. However, the BJP’s strategic adjustments changed the electoral tide in its favour.

Several factors contributed to this unexpected BJP victory. First, the party successfully expanded its appeal to non-Jat communities, including the OBCs and Scheduled Castes. This outreach proved crucial, as Congress had heavily relied on its Jat vote bank and the leadership of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, sidelining other important communities like the Dalits. The Congress’s decision to neglect leaders such as Kumari Selja, a prominent Dalit leader, proved costly. In contrast, the BJP’s choice to replace incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, helped the party mitigate anti-incumbency feelings and widen its appeal.

Despite Congress getting a vote share (around 39.1%), the BJP emerged victorious with a marginal increase of vote share of approximately 39.9%. The collapse of the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which failed to secure any seat, with a 13% vote share decline, further demonstrated a shift in voter preferences. Congress's over-reliance on traditional Jat leadership, internal divisions, over-confidence by not adding alliance parties, and lack of a broad-based strategy ultimately allowed BJP to capitalise on the situation, reversing pre-election expectations. 

A Review of Jammu & Kashmir Elections

In Jammu & Kashmir, the elections were held for the first time after the abrogation of Article 370, making them a historic event. The National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance won 48 seats out of 90, marking a strong comeback for NC, which secured 42 seats alone. Meanwhile, the BJP dominated the Jammu region, securing 29 seats, but struggled to make any significant impact in the Kashmir Valley.

The BJP's focus on development and security resonated with voters in Jammu, where it retained a strong foothold. However, in Kashmir, regional identity and the post-Article 370 political landscape overshadowed other issues, limiting the BJP's reach. The Congress fared poorly, with just six seats, down from its previous showing. The PDP, once a dominant force in Kashmir, collapsed, winning only three seats. This decline can be attributed to the disillusionment of its voter base following the abrogation of Article 370 and the party's failure to adapt to the changing political dynamics.

Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah's leadership in the NC managed to tap into the sentiments of Kashmir’s electorate, positioning the party as a defender of Kashmiri identity. The BJP, on the other hand, secured its base in Jammu but found it difficult to penetrate the stronghold of the NC in the Valley.

Lessons Learnt by Political Parties

The results of these elections offer important lessons for both the Congress and BJP as they prepare for future elections, especially in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

First, a broad voter base is essential. The BJP's success in Haryana was largely due to its strategy of expanding its appeal beyond its traditional base by reaching out to non-Jat communities. Similarly, in the 2024 general elections, BJP's confidence in securing 360 seats—Modi himself predicting 400—led to complacency among party workers. As a result, the opposition gained ground. The Congress now finds itself in a similar situation in Haryana. Relying too heavily on traditional support from the Jat community and neglecting others, Congress became complacent, while BJP and the RSS worked together efficiently, focusing on non-Jat votes.

Second, the importance of internal unity cannot be underestimated. Congress's internal divisions in both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir weakened its ability to present a strong, cohesive front. This lack of unity not only diminished the party’s effectiveness but also created opportunities for the BJP to consolidate its support.

Third, local leadership and regional issues matter. In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP’s inability to make inroads into the Kashmir Valley, despite its national appeal, showed that regional issues and leadership are crucial in sensitive areas. Similarly, in Haryana, the Congress’s over-reliance on Bhupinder Singh Hooda and its neglect of other communities led to its defeat. Political parties must remain responsive to regional dynamics and provide local leadership that resonates with voters.

Impact of this Result on Maharashtra and Jharkhand

The results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir will have a ripple effect on the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra, where coalition politics and regional concerns dominate, the BJP's success in managing diverse voter bases in Haryana may prove beneficial. However, Congress’s experience in forging strong alliances, as seen in its collaboration with the NC in Jammu & Kashmir, may offer a blueprint for opposition parties to form similar coalitions.

In Jharkhand, where local leadership and community outreach are crucial, both the Congress and BJP will need to adapt their strategies. Congress, in particular, will need to broaden its appeal and ensure that it addresses local issues effectively, avoiding the complacency that led to its downfall in Haryana.

The political landscape is continuously shifting, and the lessons learned from these Assembly elections will undoubtedly shape the strategies of both the major parties in future elections.

Conclusion

The 2024 Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have provided critical insights for India’s political parties. For the Congress, these elections were a reminder of the dangers of over-reliance on traditional leadership and support bases. For the BJP, they underscored the importance of broadening appeal and the challenges of gaining ground in sensitive regions. As the parties look ahead to elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, these lessons will likely to guide their campaigns. The results from Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir suggest that success will require careful attention to regional dynamics, effective leadership, and a broad-based approach to voter outreach.

(This article was published in the October 2024 edition of PreSense)