Modi 3.0: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

(PreSense congratulates the Election Commission and BJP on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, emphasising on high voter turnout, BJP's challenges, and democracy's prospects.)

PreSense congratulates the Indian Election Commission for successfully conducting the 2024 General Elections to elect 543 Members of the Lok Sabha. The Election Commission deployed 1.8 million Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) across 1.1 million polling booths nationwide. Around 11 million officials, including security personnel, were involved in the election process. The elections were held in seven phases across the country, with 670 million voters participating, resulting in a turnout average of 62%.

The counting of votes was conducted transparently on June 4, 2024, with live telecasts of the results. Within four hours, the nation saw a clear trend emerge, and the final results were declared by the end of the day. India takes great pride in its dynamic democracy, which saw the largest number of voters turning out in person to elect their Parliament.

BJP's Hat-Trick Victory

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made history as the first non-Congress party to form the government at the Centre for the third consecutive time since Jawaharlal Nehru's tenure. The BJP alone secured 240 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) headed by the BJP secured 293 seats, 21 seats above the majority mark of 272. In 2019, the BJP had secured 303 seats, but this time it fell short by 63 seats.

Analysing the BJP's Performance

In 2019, the BJP secured 22.9 crore votes with a vote share of 37.3%. In 2024, despite a slight drop in vote share to 36.6%, the BJP polled 23.6 crore votes, which is higher than in 2019. However, the number of seats dropped from 303 in 2019 to 240 in 2024. The Indian National Congress (INC) increased its vote count from 11.9 crore in 2019 to 13.7 crore in 2024, resulting in a vote share increase from 19.5% to 21.2%. Consequently, the INC increased its seats from 52 to 99 in 2024.  The main  reason may be that the entire opposition which was fragmented in LS 2019 elections unified to form a single alliance now. All the opposition votes were transferred to this unitary alliance. This caused an increase in its vote share.

Unemployment and rising prices were significant issues affecting the common man, which Prime Minister Modi did not address adequately in his campaign. Opposition parties highlighted these issues prominently. Additionally, Modi's communal rhetoric against Muslims and the hype around the Ram Mandir failed to garner the expected support. The narrative of fear created among minorities, particularly Muslims, led to a consolidated vote against the BJP.

Conversely, Hindu votes did not consolidate as expected. A classic example is the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency where the Ayodhya Ram Mandir is situated. The BJP thought the Ram Mandir inauguration in Ayodhya would consolidate Hindu votes. But it did not happen. The Samajwadi Party candidate defeated the BJP candidate comfortably in Faizabad.

The extreme heatwave in north India led to low voter turnout. This also worked against BJP.

The entire burden of the campaign rested on the 74 year old Prime Minister Modi with no alternate leaders stepping up. Many competent leaders within the party were not utilized effectively for the campaign.

Over the past decade, many BJP Ministers and their secretaries were reported to be unapproachable and unhelpful, even to party workers and the general public. Many displayed arrogance, refusing to meet visitors or delaying meetings. This attitude frustrated dedicated BJP workers and the general public alike.

During this election, it was reported that Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh (RSS), the parent body of the BJP, did not actively take part in the campaign.  RSS has been an invisible strength to BJP in all elections.  BJP President Nadda also openly declared that BJP did not require the support of RSS and they had enough strength to manage the elections.  These type of arrogant speeches of senior leaders distanced the committed cadre.  It may be noted that in the post emergency election, Indira Gandhi was defeated only because of the RSS.  Even in 2014, Modi was made Prime Minister only with the sustained support of RSS.  The absence of RSS in the campaign, infighting within BJP, ego among the leaders coupled with arrogance and apparent over confidence have cost them heavily.

BJP should appoint a high-power committee to study in detail the omissions and commissions they made, which lead to this unhappy situation. However, BJP should be happy that people have given them mandate to rule for third time, albeit with the support of the alliance partners.  This works as checks and balances for the governance.

Challenges Ahead for the BJP

With the BJP securing 32 seats lower than the majority mark of 272, forming a government will require the support of pre-poll allies like TDP, JDU, JDS, and others. At the time of writing this editorial, the NDA has accepted Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate and will be claiming to form the government.

Narendra Modi has previously managed the Gujarat Government and the Central Government with an independent majority, allowing him to make decisions independently. This time, he will face the challenges of handling alliance partners and their demands, similar to what Vajpayee experienced in 1998. Modi will find it difficult to implement all his promises independently and without consulting partners. Sensitive bills, like the Uniform Civil Code, will need to be discussed with partners before being introduced in Parliament. Modi will likely need to draw up a 'Common Minimum Programme' in consultation with alliance partners. Both Modi and Amit Shah have to adapt their functioning and body language to suit the new political environment.

PreSense has consistently highlighted the need for an effective opposition in a democracy. With the INDIA alliance securing 233 seats, they can function effectively in the House.

During Vajpayee regime, when it faced a similar situation with its coalition partners, George Fernandes, a senior leader of the alliance party and acceptable to all the partners, was the convenor. He managed all the crisis and disputes within partners, through dialogue.  Now BJP should identify another ‘George Fernandes’, who can handle alliance partners with comfort.  This will ensure the smooth governance of the country. 

Strengthening Democracy

One of our main concerns in the 17th Lok Sabha was the lack of discussion on bills and the Budget.  Bills were not referred to Standing Committees for scrutiny.  Another major concern was not filling up the constitutional positions like Deputy Speaker of Lok Sabha, Members of the Election Commission, Governors, Members of various Statutory and Constitutional bodies,  etc. in time.  Either they were not filled up or filled up after undue delay. PreSense is confident that with a larger opposition presence in the 18th Lok Sabha, the new Lok Sabha will effectively discharge its duties, thereby strengthening Indian democracy.

PreSense once again congratulates Modi and his new team. We are confident that they will serve the nation with renewed vigour and enthusiasm.

Source: This is the cover story published in May 2024 edition of PreSense